It’s About Time!

U.S. prosecutors will likely urge a judge to drop an indictment against an MIT professor charged a year ago with receiving federal grant money but failing to disclose his ties to China, according to people familiar with the matter.

The reversal in the case of Gang Chen, a nanotechnology expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, comes as the Justice Department is reviewing its policy of investigating and prosecuting cases of economic espionage intended to benefit China. 

We desperately need people like Gang Chen if we are going to remain competitive. The FBI Witch hunt should end. We don’t have to like someone’s philosophy or form of government to do business with them.

Talk about timing. Did you jump in the market yesterday when there was blood on the streets of Silicon Valley? I know an algorithm that did.

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Forget the economic recovery. Buy Tech @ a Discount!

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Pack Your Snorkeling Gear & Get Ready

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I Told Ya to Get Cash & Go Snorkeling!

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Be a Good Scout

Julіа Gаlеf is an еxреrt іn rаtіоnаl dесіѕіоn-mаkіng аnd a соfоundеr оf thе nоnрrоfіt Cеntеr fоr Aррlіеd Rаtіоnаlіtу, аn оrgаnіzаtіоn thаt specializes іn rаtіоnаl thinking аnd humаn соgnіtіоn. I encourage you to read her book: “The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don’t”.

 She says: “Imаgіnе thаt the world іѕ a bаttlеfіеld – аnd thаt on this bаttlеfіеld thеrе are twо types оf people: soldiers and scouts. The ѕоldіеrѕ believe thеrе is оnlу one wау оf ѕееіng thе wоrld – аnd thаt is their wау. Thеу’rе rеаdу tо аttасk anything or anyone thаt соntrаdісtѕ thеіr worldview.

The scouts are looking for the facts on the ground. What’s going on and what’s not going on. If scouts see 10 times more Indians than Custer has troops they will tell him to sound retreat. The soldiers will die with their boots on.

In my opinion, China and the US are both behaving more like Soldiers than Scouts and the world is paying the price for this. This is Scout Sortino saying to both sides: Raise the white flag and sign a peace agreement. Stop arguing about who’s political religion and social views are right and who did what to whom in the past.  WAR of any kind, military or trade, is NOT A Solution.

Oh, by the way, there are 10 times more Chinese than there are Americans.

What can you do? Gets some cash and go snorkeling in the Cayman’s until an up flag is raised. if you don’t know what that means, you haven’t been reading this Blog.

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Wrong Way to Govern Says the POLLS

Why are big tech moguls dumping $Billions of their shares and paying taxes on the profits? Their Government doesn’t like them and they don’t trust their Government.  And guess what, neither does the rest of the world. Add to that a Fed that has overspent for too long and is clinging to the notion that having the world’s reserve currency will save them. Continuing the current path will lead to stagflation at best and recession at worst. IT’s THE ECONOMY, COVID & TRADE WARS, STUPID!

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1st R42 AI Fund Launched

In 1981, Dr. Hal Forsey and I launched Post Modern Portfolio Theory. Now I have taken a quantum leap forward to join Dr. Ronjon Nag and Dr. Jeremy Sosabowski in launching this new framework for constructing and managing portfolios.

Frank A. Sortino, Professor Emeritus

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Portfolio Theory for the 21st Century will be AI Driven.

Begin by unlearning the false assumptions of CAPM that led to these false conclusions:

  1. No one can beat the market on a risk adjusted basis.
  2. No one can time the market more often than not.
  3. No one can actively manage asset allocations.
  4. The best strategy is to buy and hold.

Our research refutes all of the above.

Who are we:

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Methodology

Forget about alpha and beta and focus on the Tipping point (T) that separates good outcomes from bad outcomes. Maximize the Upside Potential above T relative to the downside risk below T and forget the Sortino and Sharpe ratios. TPR is the New Sortino Ratio.

Results

Of course, past results from back tests do not guarantee future results anymore than Big Blue’s results guaranteed it would beat the world chess champion, or that Google’s AI model would beat Big Blue, or that another Google AI model would beat the world’s GO champion.

For more details contact The R42 Institute, Palo Alto, California

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PMPT Marries AI

Yesterday I posted a brief note to let you know I got back in the market due to some Flags posted by an AI firm. The company is AlgoDynamics in London and they are sponsoring a webinar in New York. Here is the link if you wish to attend: https://www.algodynamix.com/upcomingwebinars/. I have been working closely with them and Dr. Ronjon Nag, director of the R42 institute. Our findings call into question some of the basic tenets of Portfolio Theory. It is my pleasure and privilege to be working with them on this research project.

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Flags are Up

This morning I received notice that Flags were Up for SPY and QQQ and I invested 30% of the 37% cash position I took at the time of my last posting. I will be speaking at a program by the people who issued these flags on the 24th of this month. I will ask them if I can post a link for you to that event. The gist of my speech is: the buy-hold strategy on a market index, is dead and the culprit’s initials are, AI.

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