Post Modern Portfolio Theory (PMPT)

The sky is not falling!

Yes, the news is all about inflation and the crashing financial markets. War in the Ukraine is a distant 3^rd place as far as forthcoming elections are concerned. To put this in perspective, I recommend the book that the following clip is taken from:  

“The primary professional criticism of inflation numbers in the 1970s was that they overemphasized the rising costs of volatile components such as energy and food and overstated the impact of rising prices on both the system as a whole and on individual families. Because energy costs spiked sharply and quickly after the Arab oil embargo in 1973, it appeared that inflation had jumped. Of course, it did jump, but critics rightly pointed out that those prices also receded quickly after the crisis abated.”  

Karabell, Zachary. The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World (p. 128). Simon & Schuster. Kindle Edition.

Yes, we had a war then, too, Vietnam, and a political scandal, White Water. Most importantly, realize that GDP, CPI, Unemployment, and Consumer Confidence do not accurately measure what happened, is happening, or will happen in the economy. They are seriously flawed indicators that have been revised many times… because they didn’t work.  

Five of the 9 SPY ETF Segments now have a negative Upside Potential Ratio (search this site for definition). That means, they have more downside risk than upside potential. Which ones are they? XLC, XLY, XLF, XLI and XLU.

It was caused by trade Wars. If we don’t fix it we are going to sink. Buying bicycles from China is not going to do it. Stop Hating China! Stop Hating Each Other! Fire all those ideologues who preach hatred in your administration, Joe.

Update-June 14th: You have the solution in your hands. It’s a plug. Put the plug in the hole! Yes, it’s made in China. So what! You talk with murderers in Russia and Saudi Arabia, you can talk with another type of capitalist. Dummkopf, Your foreign policy isn’t working! Your US policy of taxing tech companies and breaking them up so they are less competitive is politically correct and irrationally STUPID!

Don’t go down with the ship. I’m in the life raft of cash and starting to move into the launch called VCSH, that will take me to the Longer bond ship on the horizon. Bye Joe.

Everybody outa the Water!

• Well, the rally AI predicted is here, and if you missed it, you are not going to like the ending. For an excellent presentation of the crises facing us and the highly improbable solutions, read Ian Bremmer’s, “The Power of Crisis”. They are:
• 1. The U.S. Political system is broken.
• 2. The US-China trading partnership is broken.
• 3. The G20 framework is broken.
• 4. Big Tech poses many unknowable threats to everything humans do.

So, the first three existing crises need to be rebuilt in such a way, that they actually work. The 4th crisis will require the construction of a “World Data Organization” to protect the world from the dangers of BIG TECH. Therefore, GZERO is here to stay until a new crisis, like Cyber WW I, forces us to solve all four crises at once. Lots of luck!

Adios!

The market was wrong this week, but the problems haven’t gone away and haven’t been solved. There are $9 trillion of them. I would rather listen to my algorithm than all the talking heads on the media.

There needs to be a new world order, that works. Monetary weapons and economic weapons are still weapons. Trade wars and threats have to be replaced by negotiations and a recognition that no one, including us, is as bad as they were or as good as they can be.

Isolationism is not the right path forward and us versus them is not the way. As long as the world stays on this path we are going to be dealing with increased market instability that is going to require new investment tools. Not the old ones I taught 20 years ago.

I am trying to learn about these new tools. So should you.

What everybody knows…doesn’t matter.

Unless the’re wrong.

and you are right.

So,

Ask yourself, what does everybody know, that you disagree with?

Everybody knows the dice are loaded. Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed.

Everybody knows the war is over. Everybody knows the good guys lost.