We’ve Been Here Before

Yes, the news is all about inflation and the crashing financial markets. War in the Ukraine is a distant 3rd place as far as forthcoming elections are concerned. To put this in perspective, I recommend the book that the following clip is taken from:  

“The primary professional criticism of inflation numbers in the 1970s was that they overemphasized the rising costs of volatile components such as energy and food and overstated the impact of rising prices on both the system as a whole and on individual families. Because energy costs spiked sharply and quickly after the Arab oil embargo in 1973, it appeared that inflation had jumped. Of course, it did jump, but critics rightly pointed out that those prices also receded quickly after the crisis abated.”  

Karabell, Zachary. The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World (p. 128). Simon & Schuster. Kindle Edition.

Yes, we had a war then, too, Vietnam, and a political scandal, White Water. Most importantly, realize that GDP, CPI, Unemployment, and Consumer Confidence do not accurately measure what happened, is happening, or will happen in the economy. They are seriously flawed indicators that have been revised many times… because they didn’t work.  

About Frank Sortino

Frank Sortino is finance professor emeritus from San Francisco State University and Director of the Pension Research Institute which he founded in 1981. For 10 years he wrote a quarterly analysis of mutual funds for Pensions and Investments Magazine and he has written two books on the subject of Post Modern Portfolio Theory. He has been a featured speaker at many conferences in the U.S., Europe, South Africa, and the Pacific Basin. Dr. Sortino received his Ph.D in Finance from the University of Oregon and has carried out research projects with many institutions like Shell Oil, Netherlands and The City and County of San Francisco Retirement System.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s