How Bad Can It Get?

Fareed Zakaria is one of the few liberals that talks about the Debt problem.

Points made last week:

  1. Catherine Mantel talked about the budget deficit that was running at 3% of GDP but is now 8 to 10%. She said it was sustainable when the budget deficit was effectively zero but now says: “if something can’t go on forever, it won’t.”
  2. The Brit and US experts said: “We all thought the US was going to have a hard landing and China would have an economic boom. Now we have the opposite.”
  3. Biden is negotiating a new world order in the middle east between Isrial and The Saudi’s. The US would build a nuclear facility in Arabia and Netanyahu would dump the far right Jews. Does that mean the Saudi’s will not join BRICKS in 1/1/24?  What does Bebe get?
  4. The Saudi’s asked to join BRICKS and were accepted, but nothing has been signed yet
  5. China is Saudi’s biggest customer
  6. The US produces more oil than Saudi Arabia
  7. If you were the Saudi Prince, would you want America, or China, to build a huge atomic facility in your country?
  8. If Biden pulls all this off, he will go down in history as our greatest president.
  9. If he doesen’t,

We should keep in mind, it took a long time for the sun to set on the British Empire. I can’t imagine the Saudi Prince asking the US to build anything when his biggest trading partner is China, who can do what they say, better and faster than us. I am 70% in short and intermediate term high grade corporate debt. The coupon return + potential capital gains is greater than the expected return on US equities, in my opinion. While America is trying for check mate, China is slowly eliminating all our possible GO moves.

The Asian exodus of brilliant, highly skilled, science majors from western nations, to their homeland will soon be followed by the current herd of allies following us toward the trade wars cliff.

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About Frank Sortino

Frank Sortino is finance professor emeritus from San Francisco State University and Director of the Pension Research Institute which he founded in 1981. For 10 years he wrote a quarterly analysis of mutual funds for Pensions and Investments Magazine and he has written two books on the subject of Post Modern Portfolio Theory. He has been a featured speaker at many conferences in the U.S., Europe, South Africa, and the Pacific Basin. Dr. Sortino received his Ph.D in Finance from the University of Oregon and has carried out research projects with many institutions like Shell Oil, Netherlands and The City and County of San Francisco Retirement System.
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